Less attention has been paid, however, to the role Middle Eastern countries have played in attempting to resolve some of the Horn’s most intractable conflicts, efforts that in some cases pre-date the more recent security and economic engagements. Throughout the challenges ahead, the IMF and the global financial safety net will remain steadfast partners as countries work to save lives and rebuild economies.The Gulf states increased assertiveness in the Horn of Africa has garnered substantial attention of late, particularly the proliferation of military installations and ports and the increase in military and economic aid. The IMF is actively supporting the region, providing nearly $17 billion in aid to the region's countries since the beginning of 2020 and helping to catalyze another $5 billion from official creditors. Multilateral support can play a key role in helping countries surmount these shocks. Amid prospects for a protracted recovery in key sources of income for the region (oil, tourism, and remittances), international reserves could contract substantially across both MENAP and CCA countries. The crisis has increased external vulnerabilities and has markedly reduced external buffers.Lowering debt and rebuilding buffers will be critical priorities once countries move beyond immediate pandemic-related recovery policies. Debt-to-GDP levels are now projected to reach an average of 95 percent of GDP by the end of 2020 in MENAP oil-importing countries and 61 percent for those in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). Debt sustainability concerns are a growing challenge for oil importers. The crisis has also led to a significant erosion of fiscal space.However, the average size of fiscal relief packages was smaller than other regions around the world, which is largely the result of limited policy space among oil importers and the already significant public economic support seen among most oil exporters.

The region's countries’ immediate policy response to the pandemic focused on healthcare spending, supporting the most economically vulnerable, and ensuring liquidity provision.

As a result, a large part of the region’s growth revision is driven by weakened activity among oil exporters in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region. However, prices are still well below pre-COVID-19 levels. The agreements reached by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major oil producers (OPEC+), along with cuts in US shale oil production and some uptick in market expectations, have helped stabilize prices to an extent.

Oil exporters faced a double impact brought about by lockdowns and severe oil market fluctuations.

Additionally, as the crisis hit in March, the region saw a sudden reversal of capital flows-which have since stabilized-losing an estimated $6 billion to $8 billion in portfolio outflows. Importantly, among countries that are fragile and in conflict situations in the region, output is now projected to shrink by 13 percent in 2020. Real GDP for the region is now projected to fall by 4.7 percent in 2020, a 2 percentage point drop from our April 2020 Regional Economic Outlook.

The necessary containment measures, implemented to slow the pandemic's spread, together with lower global demand have had a significant impact on economic activity.

Here are five charts that help tell the story of COVID-19’s economic impact on the region: The IMF will work with countries to help facilitate the economic recovery and aid the millions of people whose livelihoods have suffered in the pandemic’s wake.” “Ensuring health systems are strong and well-resourced remains essential as countries consider what kind of economies they want to build for the future. “The immediate actions countries in the region took as COVID-19 began sweeping the globe helped save lives,” said Jihad Azour, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department.

As many countries in the region begin to gradually reopen, policymakers will be tasked with mitigating the ongoing public health threat while also taking steps to rebuild economies and ensure that adequate social safety nets are in place.

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